Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China
Identifieur interne : 000528 ( 2020/Analysis ); précédent : 000527; suivant : 000529Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China
Auteurs : Benjamin F. Maier [Allemagne] ; Dirk Brockmann [Allemagne]Source :
- Science (New York, N.y.) [ 0036-8075 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
The recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China was characterized by a distinctive subexponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic, contrasting an initial exponential growth expected for an unconstrained outbreak. We show that this effect can be explained as a direct consequence of containment policies that effectively deplete the susceptible population. To this end, we introduce a parsimonious model that captures both, quarantine of symptomatic infected individuals as well as population-wide isolation practices in response to containment policies or behavioral changes and show that the model captures the observed growth behavior accurately. The insights provided here may aid the careful implementation of containment strategies for ongoing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19 or similar future outbreaks of other emergent infectious diseases.
Url:
DOI: 10.1126/science.abb4557
PubMed: 32269067
PubMed Central: 7164388
Affiliations:
Links toward previous steps (curation, corpus...)
- to stream Pmc, to step Corpus: 000821
- to stream Pmc, to step Curation: 000821
- to stream Pmc, to step Checkpoint: 000444
- to stream Ncbi, to step Merge: 000D15
- to stream Ncbi, to step Curation: 000D15
- to stream Ncbi, to step Checkpoint: 000D15
- to stream Main, to step Merge: 000528
- to stream Main, to step Curation: 000528
- to stream Main, to step Exploration: 000528
- to stream 2020, to step Extraction: 000528
Links to Exploration step
PMC:7164388Le document en format XML
<record><TEI><teiHeader><fileDesc><titleStmt><title xml:lang="en">Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed
COVID-19 cases in China</title>
<author><name sortKey="Maier, Benjamin F" sort="Maier, Benjamin F" uniqKey="Maier B" first="Benjamin F." last="Maier">Benjamin F. Maier</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin, Germany.</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Allemagne</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region>
<settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Brockmann, Dirk" sort="Brockmann, Dirk" uniqKey="Brockmann D" first="Dirk" last="Brockmann">Dirk Brockmann</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin, Germany.</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Allemagne</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region>
<settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Institute for Theoretical Biology, Humboldt-University of Berlin, Philippstr. 13, D-10115 Berlin, Germany.</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Allemagne</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Theoretical Biology, Humboldt-University of Berlin, Philippstr. 13, D-10115 Berlin</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region>
<settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</titleStmt>
<publicationStmt><idno type="wicri:source">PMC</idno>
<idno type="pmid">32269067</idno>
<idno type="pmc">7164388</idno>
<idno type="url">http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7164388</idno>
<idno type="RBID">PMC:7164388</idno>
<idno type="doi">10.1126/science.abb4557</idno>
<date when="2020">2020</date>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Corpus">000821</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Corpus" wicri:corpus="PMC">000821</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Curation">000821</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Curation">000821</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Pmc/Checkpoint">000444</idno>
<idno type="wicri:explorRef" wicri:stream="Pmc" wicri:step="Checkpoint">000444</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Merge">000D15</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Curation">000D15</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Ncbi/Checkpoint">000D15</idno>
<idno type="wicri:doubleKey">0036-8075:2020:Maier B:effective:containment:explains</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Merge">000528</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Curation">000528</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/Main/Exploration">000528</idno>
<idno type="wicri:Area/2020/Extraction">000528</idno>
</publicationStmt>
<sourceDesc><biblStruct><analytic><title xml:lang="en" level="a" type="main">Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed
COVID-19 cases in China</title>
<author><name sortKey="Maier, Benjamin F" sort="Maier, Benjamin F" uniqKey="Maier B" first="Benjamin F." last="Maier">Benjamin F. Maier</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin, Germany.</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Allemagne</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region>
<settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Brockmann, Dirk" sort="Brockmann, Dirk" uniqKey="Brockmann D" first="Dirk" last="Brockmann">Dirk Brockmann</name>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff1">Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin, Germany.</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Allemagne</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Robert Koch Institute, Nordufer 20, D-13353 Berlin</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region>
<settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
<affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff2">Institute for Theoretical Biology, Humboldt-University of Berlin, Philippstr. 13, D-10115 Berlin, Germany.</nlm:aff>
<country xml:lang="fr" wicri:curation="lc">Allemagne</country>
<wicri:regionArea>Institute for Theoretical Biology, Humboldt-University of Berlin, Philippstr. 13, D-10115 Berlin</wicri:regionArea>
<placeName><region type="land" nuts="3">Berlin</region>
<settlement type="city">Berlin</settlement>
</placeName>
</affiliation>
</author>
</analytic>
<series><title level="j">Science (New York, N.y.)</title>
<idno type="ISSN">0036-8075</idno>
<idno type="eISSN">1095-9203</idno>
<imprint><date when="2020">2020</date>
</imprint>
</series>
</biblStruct>
</sourceDesc>
</fileDesc>
<profileDesc><textClass></textClass>
</profileDesc>
</teiHeader>
<front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>The recent outbreak of COVID-19 in Mainland China was characterized by a distinctive
subexponential increase of confirmed cases during the early phase of the epidemic,
contrasting an initial exponential growth expected for an unconstrained outbreak. We show
that this effect can be explained as a direct consequence of containment policies that
effectively deplete the susceptible population. To this end, we introduce a parsimonious
model that captures both, quarantine of symptomatic infected individuals as well as
population-wide isolation practices in response to containment policies or behavioral
changes and show that the model captures the observed growth behavior accurately. The
insights provided here may aid the careful implementation of containment strategies for
ongoing secondary outbreaks of COVID-19 or similar future outbreaks of other emergent
infectious diseases.</p>
</div>
</front>
<back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cohen, J" uniqKey="Cohen J">J. Cohen</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hsu, J" uniqKey="Hsu J">J. Hsu</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lewis, T" uniqKey="Lewis T">T. Lewis</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chen, N" uniqKey="Chen N">N. Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhou, M" uniqKey="Zhou M">M. Zhou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dong, X" uniqKey="Dong X">X. Dong</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Qu, J" uniqKey="Qu J">J. Qu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gong, F" uniqKey="Gong F">F. Gong</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Han, Y" uniqKey="Han Y">Y. Han</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Qiu, Y" uniqKey="Qiu Y">Y. Qiu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, J" uniqKey="Wang J">J. Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, Y" uniqKey="Liu Y">Y. Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wei, Y" uniqKey="Wei Y">Y. Wei</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Xia, J" uniqKey="Xia J">J. Xia</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yu, T" uniqKey="Yu T">T. Yu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhang, X" uniqKey="Zhang X">X. Zhang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhang, L" uniqKey="Zhang L">L. Zhang</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Zhao, S" uniqKey="Zhao S">S. Zhao</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lin, Q" uniqKey="Lin Q">Q. Lin</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ran, J" uniqKey="Ran J">J. Ran</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Musa, S S" uniqKey="Musa S">S. S. Musa</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, G" uniqKey="Yang G">G. Yang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, W" uniqKey="Wang W">W. Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lou, Y" uniqKey="Lou Y">Y. Lou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gao, D" uniqKey="Gao D">D. Gao</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, L" uniqKey="Yang L">L. Yang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="He, D" uniqKey="He D">D. He</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, M H" uniqKey="Wang M">M. H. Wang</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Dong, E" uniqKey="Dong E">E. Dong</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Du, H" uniqKey="Du H">H. Du</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gardner, L" uniqKey="Gardner L">L. Gardner</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="De Picoli Junior, S" uniqKey="De Picoli Junior S">S. de Picoli Junior</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Teixeira, J X0a J" uniqKey="Teixeira J">J.
J. Teixeira</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ribeiro, H X0a V" uniqKey="Ribeiro H">H.
V. Ribeiro</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Malacarne, L X0a C" uniqKey="Malacarne L">L.
C. Malacarne</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dos Santos, R X0a P" uniqKey="Dos Santos R">R.
P. dos Santos</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Dos Santos Mendes, R" uniqKey="Dos Santos Mendes R">R. dos Santos Mendes</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Hunt, A G" uniqKey="Hunt A">A. G. Hunt</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Li, Q" uniqKey="Li Q">Q. Li</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Guan, X" uniqKey="Guan X">X. Guan</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, P" uniqKey="Wu P">P. Wu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, X" uniqKey="Wang X">X. Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhou, L" uniqKey="Zhou L">L. Zhou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tong, Y" uniqKey="Tong Y">Y. Tong</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ren, R" uniqKey="Ren R">R. Ren</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Leung, K S M" uniqKey="Leung K">K. S. M. Leung</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lau, E H X0a Y" uniqKey="Lau E">E. H.
Y. Lau</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wong, J Y" uniqKey="Wong J">J. Y. Wong</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Xing, X" uniqKey="Xing X">X. Xing</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Xiang, N" uniqKey="Xiang N">N. Xiang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, Y" uniqKey="Wu Y">Y. Wu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Li, C" uniqKey="Li C">C. Li</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chen, Q" uniqKey="Chen Q">Q. Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Li, D" uniqKey="Li D">D. Li</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, T" uniqKey="Liu T">T. Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhao, J" uniqKey="Zhao J">J. Zhao</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, M" uniqKey="Liu M">M. Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tu, W" uniqKey="Tu W">W. Tu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Chen, C" uniqKey="Chen C">C. Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jin, L" uniqKey="Jin L">L. Jin</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, R" uniqKey="Yang R">R. Yang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, Q" uniqKey="Wang Q">Q. Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhou, S" uniqKey="Zhou S">S. Zhou</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wang, R" uniqKey="Wang R">R. Wang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, H" uniqKey="Liu H">H. Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Luo, Y" uniqKey="Luo Y">Y. Luo</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, Y" uniqKey="Liu Y">Y. Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Shao, G" uniqKey="Shao G">G. Shao</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Li, H" uniqKey="Li H">H. Li</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Tao, Z" uniqKey="Tao Z">Z. Tao</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y. Yang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Deng, Z" uniqKey="Deng Z">Z. Deng</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, B" uniqKey="Liu B">B. Liu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Ma, Z" uniqKey="Ma Z">Z. Ma</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Zhang, Y" uniqKey="Zhang Y">Y. Zhang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Shi, G" uniqKey="Shi G">G. Shi</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Lam, T T Y" uniqKey="Lam T">T. T. Y. Lam</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Wu, J T" uniqKey="Wu J">J. T. Wu</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Gao, G F" uniqKey="Gao G">G. F. Gao</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cowling, B J" uniqKey="Cowling B">B. J. Cowling</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Yang, B" uniqKey="Yang B">B. Yang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Leung, G M" uniqKey="Leung G">G. M. Leung</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Feng, Z" uniqKey="Feng Z">Z. Feng</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Chen, Y" uniqKey="Chen Y">Y. Chen</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Cheng, J" uniqKey="Cheng J">J. Cheng</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Jiang, Y" uniqKey="Jiang Y">Y. Jiang</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Liu, K" uniqKey="Liu K">K. Liu</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Kermack, W O" uniqKey="Kermack W">W. O. Kermack</name>
</author>
<author><name sortKey="Mckendrick, A X0a G" uniqKey="Mckendrick A">A.
G. McKendrick</name>
</author>
</analytic>
</biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
<biblStruct></biblStruct>
</listBibl>
</div1>
</back>
</TEI>
<affiliations><list><country><li>Allemagne</li>
</country>
<region><li>Berlin</li>
</region>
<settlement><li>Berlin</li>
</settlement>
</list>
<tree><country name="Allemagne"><region name="Berlin"><name sortKey="Maier, Benjamin F" sort="Maier, Benjamin F" uniqKey="Maier B" first="Benjamin F." last="Maier">Benjamin F. Maier</name>
</region>
<name sortKey="Brockmann, Dirk" sort="Brockmann, Dirk" uniqKey="Brockmann D" first="Dirk" last="Brockmann">Dirk Brockmann</name>
<name sortKey="Brockmann, Dirk" sort="Brockmann, Dirk" uniqKey="Brockmann D" first="Dirk" last="Brockmann">Dirk Brockmann</name>
</country>
</tree>
</affiliations>
</record>
Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
EXPLOR_STEP=$WICRI_ROOT/Sante/explor/StressCovidV1/Data/2020/Analysis
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_STEP/biblio.hfd -nk 000528 | SxmlIndent | more
Ou
HfdSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/2020/Analysis/biblio.hfd -nk 000528 | SxmlIndent | more
Pour mettre un lien sur cette page dans le réseau Wicri
{{Explor lien |wiki= Sante |area= StressCovidV1 |flux= 2020 |étape= Analysis |type= RBID |clé= PMC:7164388 |texte= Effective containment explains subexponential growth in recent confirmed COVID-19 cases in China }}
Pour générer des pages wiki
HfdIndexSelect -h $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/2020/Analysis/RBID.i -Sk "pubmed:32269067" \ | HfdSelect -Kh $EXPLOR_AREA/Data/2020/Analysis/biblio.hfd \ | NlmPubMed2Wicri -a StressCovidV1
This area was generated with Dilib version V0.6.33. |